You Say You Want A Revolution?

I’m not looking for crow recipes yet – but I’m not giving up all hope.

I’m still not getting tingles up my spine from what is going on in Iran, though.  Here’s why:  First, I’ve seen revolutions in Ukraine, Russia, Kyrgyzstan and Georgia (among others) in my lifetime and I’ve seen what happens in the aftermath.  In the heat of the moment of those revolutions I got excited.  My heart shouts, “Liberty!  Freedom!  Democracy!”  But having traveled to all but one of these countries in the aftermath and dealt with people from all of them, it has become clear that liberal democracy does not take root as easily as one would hope.  In fact, in each of these cases, liberalization has failed and has been overtaken by corruption and oligarchy.

Much the same thing is happening now in Iran.  What we’re seeing there are two parts of the establishment fighting for power and using the third (English-speaking, twittering, liberal) segment of the society to gain an advantage over their adversary.  The folks at Stratfor agree and helped put into words what my gut was telling me last night when I watched extensive coverage of the “revolution” on television.

Ah, so this is how it feels to be a cynic.

Unrest in Iran

There’s a lot being made of the post-election unrest in Iran.  Some people are getting tingles up their spines and proclaiming it the beginning of the end for the Iranian theocracy.  I’m going to go on record and say that this is just wishful thinking.  Mousavi isn’t much better than Ahmadinejad and even if the whole thing explodes into civil war, the end result would be no better for the US.  Not to mention the fact that the sitting US President just sent a huge love note to the “Muslim world” and somehow aiding the opposition would greatly contradict that.  And, you know, Obama never contradicts himself.

There you go.  I’m on record.  Check back in a few weeks and see if I’m eating crow pot pie.